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decision_in_wargame_design
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decision_in_wargame_design [06/09/2018 11:03] mikep |
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| In wargames we often roll a dice to arrive at a decision. to that die roll we might add or subtract modifiers to nuance that result for different circumstances. It is important we cannot identify all the factors which influence a particular outcome at a particular time. That is why we roll the dice. | In wargames we often roll a dice to arrive at a decision. to that die roll we might add or subtract modifiers to nuance that result for different circumstances. It is important we cannot identify all the factors which influence a particular outcome at a particular time. That is why we roll the dice. | ||
| - | To take John bridge as an example. The critical out come is did the British build the bridge before the Germans realize and react? As there are two options and lacking any other information that becomes a 50-50 chance. Now John would (and did) say but the engineers might build the bridge faster than expected. True but also they might be slower so we are back to a 50-50 chance. You can go through each factor you can imagine on what might effect the successes of the bridging operation and if you can identify a counter factor you simple ignore it. I thought of just one factor which might impact on the success of the mission. | + | To take John's bridge as an example. The critical out come is did the British build the bridge before the Germans realize and react? As there are two options and lacking any other information that becomes a 50-50 chance. Now John would (and did) say but the engineers might build the bridge faster than expected. True but also they might be slower so we are back to a 50-50 chance. You can go through each factor you can imagine on what might effect the successes of the bridging operation and if you can identify a counter factor you simple ignore it. I thought of just one factor which might impact on the success of the mission. |
| Experience. The British Army at that time was well trained but in the larger sense lacked combat experience. So the question is are the men of the bridging unit 8th army veterans who have been building bridges all winter along the Rapido at Monte Cassino or a unit just arrived from the uk. I would suggest that building their first bridge with Germans all round would take longer than a team who had been doing it for 6 months under fire. A veteran unit might make the mission perhaps 60-40 while the newbies would perhaps be 40-60. Obviously saying the impact of experience is 10% is arbitrary and if you have a different opinion by all means use it instead but ask yourself do you actually know what the factor should be? | Experience. The British Army at that time was well trained but in the larger sense lacked combat experience. So the question is are the men of the bridging unit 8th army veterans who have been building bridges all winter along the Rapido at Monte Cassino or a unit just arrived from the uk. I would suggest that building their first bridge with Germans all round would take longer than a team who had been doing it for 6 months under fire. A veteran unit might make the mission perhaps 60-40 while the newbies would perhaps be 40-60. Obviously saying the impact of experience is 10% is arbitrary and if you have a different opinion by all means use it instead but ask yourself do you actually know what the factor should be? | ||
decision_in_wargame_design.1536231795.txt.gz · Last modified: 06/09/2018 11:03 by mikep
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